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Time trends, projections, and spatial distribution of low birthweight in Australia, 2009-2030: Evidence from the
M Mamun Huda1,2, Leonie K Callaway3,4, Greg Jackson5,6
1Poche Centre for Indigenous Health, The University of Queensland, Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
Insights
Low birthweight (LBW) prevalence increased in Australia from 2009-2019, with higher rates among disadvantaged groups. Projections indicate continued rise, jeopardizing Sustainable Development Goals for infant health.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Perinatal Health
Background:
- Infant low birthweight (LBW) rates have risen globally in high-resource nations.
- LBW is a critical indicator of perinatal and infant health outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze time trends, spatial distribution, and future projections of LBW in Australia (2009-2030).
- To identify subpopulations with increasing LBW prevalence.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Australian National Perinatal Data Collection (2009-2019) for over 3.3 million births.
- Employed Bayesian linear regression to estimate LBW prevalence trends and Average Annual Rate of Change (AARC).
Main Results:
- LBW prevalence rose from 6.18% (2009) to 6.64% (2019), an AARC of +0.76%.
- Projected increase to 7.34% by 2030 if trends persist.
- Significant increases observed in non-Indigenous mothers, most disadvantaged groups, teenagers, older mothers, and smokers.
- Higher LBW prevalence noted in specific areas of Northern Territory and Queensland.
Conclusions:
- LBW prevalence is increasing in Australia, with disparities across subpopulations.
- Current trends hinder achievement of Sustainable Development Goals for reducing LBW.
- Targeted support for vulnerable groups is crucial for improving perinatal health and meeting SDG targets.
Introduction:
Infants with low birthweight (LBW, birthweight <2500 g) have increased in many high-resource countries over the past two decades. This study aimed to investigate the time trends, projections, and spatial distribution of LBW in Australia, 2009-2030.
Methods:
We used standard aggregate data on 3 346 808 births from 2009 to 2019 from Australia's National Perinatal Data Collection. Bayesian linear regression model was used to estimate the trends in the prevalence of LBW in Australia.
Results:
Wefound that the prevalence of LBW was 6.18% in 2009, which has increased to 6.64% in 2019 (average annual rate of change, AARC = +0.76%). If the national trend remains the same, the projected prevalence of LBW in Australia will increase to 7.34% (95% uncertainty interval, UI = 6.99, 7.68) in 2030. Observing AARC across different subpopulations, the trend of LBW was stable among Indigenous mothers, whereas it increased among non-Indigenous mothers (AARC = +0.81%). There is also an increase among the most disadvantaged mothers (AARC = +1.08%), birthing people in either of two extreme age groups (AARC = +1.99% and +1.53% for <20 years and ≥40 years, respectively), and mothers who smoked during pregnancy (AARC = +1.52%). Spatiotemporal maps showed that some of the Statistical Area level 3 (SA3) in Northern Territory and Queensland had consistently higher prevalence for LBW than the national average from 2014 to 2019.
Conclusion:
Overall, the prevalence of LBW has increased in Australia during 2009-2019; however, the trends vary across different subpopulations. If trends persist, Australia will not achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target of a 30% reduction in LBW by 2030. Centering and supporting the most vulnerable subpopulations is vital to progress the SDGs and improves perinatal and infant health in Australia.
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