A Statistical Investigation into the COVID-19 Outbreak Spread

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Epidemiology
• Public Health

Background:

• Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) outbreaks have occurred globally, including in Bangladesh.
• Limited evidence exists on the link between COVID-19 and climatic variables in the region.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between COVID-19 outbreaks and climatic factors in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
• To examine the asymmetric effect of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission.

Main Methods:

• Utilized daily COVID-19 time series data from May 2020 to April 2021 in Dhaka.
• Analyzed climatic factors including temperature, particulate matter (PM2.5), humidity, carbon emissions, and wind speed.
• Employed Spearman correlation and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models.

Main Results:

• Significant positive associations found between COVID-19 cases and wind speed (r=0.781), temperature (r=0.599), and carbon emissions (r=0.309).
• Particulate matter (PM2.5) showed a significant negative relationship (r=-0.178).
• A 1% increase in temperature led to a 1.23% short-term and 1.53% long-term rise in COVID-19 incidence. Long-term humidity also showed a positive association.

Conclusions:

• Climatic variables, particularly temperature, wind speed, and carbon emissions, are significantly associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in Dhaka.
• Findings suggest that climate change and air quality may influence the spread of COVID-19.
• Further research is needed to understand these complex interactions for public health strategies.