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Quantitative Analysis for Chinese and US-listed Pharmaceutical Companies by the LightGBM Algorithm
Wenwen Zheng1, Junjun Li2, Yu Wang2
1Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Current Computer-Aided Drug Design
|January 27, 2023
Summary
Machine learning analysis reveals US pharmaceutical companies show stronger growth trends than Chinese ones, though the gap is narrowing. Key financial indicators like net profit growth and debt ratio are crucial for performance.
Area of Science:
- Pharmaceutical industry analysis
- Machine learning applications in finance
- Global market trends
Background:
- The global pharmaceutical sector faces challenges with low research and development (R&D) success rates.
- The United States leads the global pharmaceutical market, while China represents the largest emerging market.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantitatively analyze and compare the growth trends of listed pharmaceutical companies in the US and China.
- To utilize machine learning for modeling and identifying key performance factors in the pharmaceutical industry.
Main Methods:
- A LightGBM machine learning algorithm was employed to build predictive models.
- Data from listed pharmaceutical companies in the US and China were collected and analyzed.
- Feature importance analysis was conducted to identify significant financial indicators influencing company performance.
Main Results:
- The machine learning model achieved 80.3% prediction accuracy for US companies and 64.9% for Chinese companies.
- Net profit growth rate and debt liability ratio were identified as significant financial indicators.
- While the US may maintain dominance, Chinese pharmaceutical companies have shown rapid growth post-2015, narrowing the industry gap.
Conclusions:
- Machine learning provides a novel quantitative perspective on the growth trends of US and Chinese pharmaceutical firms.
- Companies were categorized into four levels based on R&D capability and profitability to assess growth trajectories.
- The study highlights differing growth patterns and identifies key financial drivers within the pharmaceutical sectors of the US and China.
