Spatiotemporal variation of irrigation water requirements for grain crops under climate change in Northwest China

Clarifying the spatiotemporal variation of crop irrigation water requirement (IWR) under the background of climate change is an essential basis for water resource management, determining the irrigation quota and adjusting the planting structure. Using 61 years of climate data from 205 stations in Northwest China, this study investigated the spatiotemporal variations of climatic factors and IWR during the growth period of five main grain crops (spring wheat, winter wheat, spring maize, summer maize, and rice) and explored the dominant climatic driving factors of IWR variation. Results showed that (1) the IWR of grain crops showed distinct differences. Rice was the highest water consumption crop (mean of 753.78 mm), and summer maize was the lowest (mean of 452.90 mm). (2) The variation trends and average values of IWR of different grain crops have spatial heterogeneity across Northwest China. For most crops, high values and increasing trends of IWR were mainly located in eastern Xinjiang, western Gansu, and western Inner Mongolia. (3) T_max (maximum temperature), T_min (minimum temperature), and P_eff (effective precipitation) showed an increasing trend during the growth period of each grain crop, while U₁₀ (wind speed at 10 m height), SD (solar radiation), and RH (relative humidity) presented decreasing trends. (4) SD, T_max, and U₁₀ promoted the increase of grain crops' IWR, while P_eff and RH inhibited it. The impacts of climatic factors on the grain crop IWR differed among different regions. P_eff was the most influential factor to the IWR of all grain crops in most areas. Therefore, under the premise of a significant increase in T and uncertain precipitation mode in the future, it is urgent to take effective water-saving measures according to the irrigation needs of the region. To cope with the adverse impact of climate change on the sustainable development of agriculture in the northwest dry area, to ensure regional and national food security.