Leaving a plastic legacy: Current and future scenarios for mismanaged plastic waste in rivers

Mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) entering the riverine environment is concerning, given that most plastic pollution never reaches the oceans, and it has a severe negative impact on terrestrial ecosystems. However, significant knowledge gaps on the storage and remobilization of MPW within different rivers over varying timescales remain. Here we analyze the exposure of river systems to MPW to better understand the sedimentary processes that control the legacy of plastic waste. Using a conservative approach, we estimate 0.8 million tonnes of MPW enter rivers annually in 2015, affecting an estimated 84 % of rivers by surface area, globally. By 2060, the amount of MPW input to rivers is expected to increase nearly 3-fold, however improved plastic waste strategies through better governance can decrease plastic pollution by up to 72 %. Currently, most plastic input occurs along anthropogenically modified rivers (49 %) yet these represent only 23 % of rivers by surface area. Another 17 % of MPW occur in free-flowing actively migrating meandering rivers that likely retain most plastic waste within sedimentary deposits, increasing retention times and likelihood of biochemical weathering. Active braided rivers receive less MPW (14 %), but higher water discharge will also increase fragmentation to form microplastics. Only 20 % of plastic pollution is found in non-migrating and free-flowing rivers; these have the highest probability of plastics remaining within the water column and being transferred downstream. This study demonstrates the spatial variability in MPW affecting different global river systems with different retention, fragmentation, and biochemical weathering rates of plastics. Targeted mitigation strategies and environmental risk assessments are needed at both international and national levels that consider river system dynamics.