Improved pre-test likelihood estimation of coronary artery disease using phonocardiography

Current early risk stratification of coronary artery disease (CAD) consists of pre-test probability scoring such as the 2019 ESC guidelines on chronic coronary syndromes (ESC2019), which has low specificity and thus rule-out capacity. A newer clinical risk factor model (risk factor-weighted clinical likelihood, RF-CL) showed significantly improved rule-out capacity over the ESC2019 model. The aim of the current study was to investigate if the addition of acoustic features to the RF-CL model could improve the rule-out potential of the best performing clinical risk factor models.

Four studies with heart sound recordings from 2222 patients were pooled and distributed into two data sets: training and test. From a feature bank of 40 acoustic features, a forward-selection technique was used to select three features that were added to the RF-CL model. Using a cutoff of 5% predicted risk of CAD, the developed acoustic-weighted clinical likelihood (A-CL) model showed significantly (P < 0.05) higher specificity of 48.6% than the RF-CL model (specificity of 41.5%) and ESC 2019 model (specificity of 6.9%) while having the same sensitivity of 84.9% as the RF-CL model. Area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic for the three models was 72.5% for ESC2019, 76.7% for RF-CL, and 79.5% for A-CL.

The proposed A-CL model offers significantly improved rule-out capacity over the ESC2019 model and showed better overall performance than the RF-CL model. The addition of acoustic features to the RF-CL model was shown to significantly improve early risk stratification of symptomatic patients suspected of having stable CAD.