Specifying a cascade water demand forecasting model using time-series analysis: a case of Jordan.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Water Resource Management
• Socioeconomics

Background:

• Water scarcity is a critical issue in arid regions like Jordan.
• Accurate water demand forecasting is essential for sustainable resource management.
• The Al-Balqa governorate faces increasing pressure on its water resources.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a water demand forecasting model for the Al-Balqa governorate, Jordan.
• To project water demand for municipal uses between 2021 and 2030.
• To assess future water availability considering population growth and climate variability.

Main Methods:

• Time series analysis of historical water consumption data (1990-2020).
• Inclusion of socioeconomic factors (population, income) and climate variables (precipitation, temperature).
• Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) utilized for data analysis.

Main Results:

• Projected population increase to 740,790 by 2030.
• Estimated municipal water demand to rise to 69.88 million cubic meters in 2030 (from 52.95 million m³ in 2020).
• Model validation confirmed its accuracy in forecasting water demand.

Conclusions:

• Population growth and climate fluctuations significantly increase water demand.
• Effective managerial practices are crucial for water security in Jordan.
• Proactive measures are needed to address future water supply challenges.