Prediction of survival with lower intensity therapy among older patients with acute myeloid leukemia

The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model for survival in older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who were treated with lower-intensity chemotherapy regimens.

The authors reviewed all older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed AML who received lower-intensity chemotherapy from 2000 until 2020 at their institution. A total of 1462 patients were included. They were divided (3:1 basis) into a training (n = 1088) and a validation group (n = 374).

In the training cohort of 1088 patients (median age, 72 years), the multivariate analysis identified 11 consistent independent adverse factors associated with survival: older age, therapy-related myeloid neoplasm, existence of previous myelodysplastic syndrome or myeloproliferative neoplasms, poor performance status, pulmonary comorbidity, anemia, thrombocytopenia, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, cytogenetic abnormalities, and the presence of infection at diagnosis, and therapy not containing venetoclax. The 3-year survival rates were 52%, 24%, 10%, and 1% in favorable, intermediate, poor, and very poor risk, respectively. This survival model was validated in an independent cohort. In a subset of patients in whom molecular mutation profiles were performed in more recent times, adding the mutation profiles after accounting for the effects of previous factors identified IDH2 (favorable), NPM1 (favorable), and TP53 (unfavorable) mutations as molecular prognostic factors.

The proposed survival model with lower-intensity chemotherapy in older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed AML may help to advise patients on their expected outcome, to propose different strategies in first complete remission, and to compare the results of different existing or future investigational therapies.

Lower intensity therapy can be considered for older patients to avoid severe toxicities and adverse events. However, survival prediction in AML was commonly developed in patients who received intensive chemotherapy. In this study, we have proposed a survival model to guide therapeutic approach in older patients who received lower-intensity therapy.