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Updated: Aug 12, 2025
Measurement of the Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient and Transjugular Liver Biopsy
Published on: June 18, 2020
MELD 3.0 Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Cirrhosis After Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt
Jinlei Song1,2, Xiaoze Wang1, Yuling Yan1
1Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Sichuan University-University of Oxford Huaxi Joint Centre for Gastrointestinal Cancer, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37 Guoxue Lane, Chengdu, 610041, Sichuan, China.
Background And Aims:
The selection of appropriate candidates for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is important and challenging. To validate the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis after TIPS creation.
Methods:
A total of 855 consecutive patients with cirrhosis from December 2011 to October 2019 who underwent TIPS placement were retrospectively reviewed. The prognostic value of the MELD 3.0, MELD, MELD-Na, Child-Pugh and FIPS score was assessed using Harrell's C concordance index (c-index). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to test the goodness of fit of all models and the calibration plot was drawn.
Results:
The c-index of the MELD 3.0 in predicting 3-month mortality was 0.727 (0.645-0.808), which were significantly superior to the MELD (0.663 [0.565-0.761]; P = 0.015), MELD-Na (0.672 [0.577-0.768]; P = 0.008) and FIPS (0.582 [0.477-0.687]; P = 0.015). The Child-Pugh score reached c-indices of 0.754 (0.673-0.835), 0.720 (0.649-0.792), 0.705 (0.643-0.766) and 0.665 (0.614-0.716) for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year mortality, respectively, which seems comparable to MELD 3.0. A MELD 3.0 of 14 could be used as a cut-off point for discriminating between high- and low-risk patients. The MELD 3.0 could stratify patients with Child-Pugh grade B (log-rank P < 0.001). The Child-Pugh score could stratify patients defined as low risk by MELD 3.0 (log-rank P < 0.001).
Conclusions:
The MELD 3.0 was significantly superior to the MELD, MELD-Na and FIPS scores in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis after TIPS creation.
