Planning for Mpox on a College Campus: A Model-Based Decision-Support Tool

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Public Health

Background:

• The 2022 global mpox outbreak, primarily among men who have sex with men (MSM), raised concerns about transmission in high-contact communities like university campuses.
• Understanding mpox transmission dynamics is crucial for developing effective control strategies in congregate settings.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the probability of mpox outbreaks on a residential college campus.
• To evaluate the impact of various mitigation strategies on controlling mpox transmission.

Main Methods:

• A stochastic dynamic SEIR model was developed to simulate mpox transmission.
• The model incorporated distinct high-risk (MSM) and low-risk groups with different transmission rates (R0).
• Simulations projected outcomes over a 100-day period, assessing interventions like isolation, quarantine, and vaccination.

Main Results:

• Without interventions, an 83% likelihood of sustained mpox transmission was estimated, averaging 183 cases.
• Increasing detection and isolation rates from 20% to 80% reduced average infections to 117, 37, and 8 cases, respectively.
• Both reactive and preemptive vaccination strategies significantly decreased the number of cases compared to isolation alone.

Conclusions:

• Mpox outbreaks on college campuses can be effectively controlled through prompt identification and isolation of infected individuals.
• Mitigation strategies, including isolation, quarantine, and vaccination, are vital for managing mpox in university settings.
• Model-based analysis supports the feasibility of controlling mpox on campuses with existing public health knowledge.