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Related Experiment Video

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Task Interruption and Resumption Paradigm for Testing the Activation and Pursuit of an Abstract Thinking Goal

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Causal intuition in the indefinite world: Meta-analysis and simulations.

Kohki Higuchi¹, Kuratomo Oyo², Tatsuji Takahashi¹

¹School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Denki University, Ishizaka, Hatoyama, Hiki, Saitama 350-0394, Japan.

|January 30, 2023

Summary

We introduce a new causal induction model, proportion of assumed-to-be rare instances (pARIs), which excels in the initial causal discovery stage. This model demonstrates superior performance in data fit and population covariation detection compared to existing methods.

Keywords:

Causal inference Conditionals Correlation detection Elemental causal induction Independence judgment Prospect theory

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Science
Psychology
Artificial Intelligence

Background:

Causal intuition is key to understanding behavior.
Existing causal induction models have limitations.
The two-stage theory of causal induction provides a framework for analysis.

Conclusions:

pARIs is a leading model for the first stage of causal induction (causal discovery).
Findings enhance understanding of cognitive biases in causal reasoning.
The causal discovery stage is crucial for hypothesizing causal model topology.