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Transitions in Metabolic Health Status and Obesity Over Time and Risk of Diabetes: The Dongfeng-Tongji Cohort Study
Yue Wei1, Ruixin Wang1, Jing Wang1
1Department of Occupational and Environmental Health and State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health for Incubating, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei 430030, China.
Context:
Evidence regarding the association between metabolically healthy overweight or obesity (MHOO) and diabetes is controversial, and mostly ignores the dynamic change of metabolic health status and obesity.
Objective:
To explore the association between transitions of metabolic health status and obesity over 5 years and diabetes incidence.
Methods:
We examined 17 309 participants derived from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort and followed from 2008 to 2018 (median follow-up 9.9 years). All participants were categorized into 4 phenotypes based on body mass index (BMI) and metabolic health status: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), MHOO, and metabolically unhealthy overweight or obesity (MUOO). The associations of changes in BMI-metabolic health status (2008-2013) with diabetes incidence (2018) were performed among 12 206 individuals with 2 follow-up examinations.
Results:
Compared with stable MHNW, stable MHOO (hazard ratio [HR] 1.76; 95% CI 1.26, 2.45) and transition from MHOO to metabolically unhealthy phenotypes were associated with higher risk for diabetes (HR 2.97; 95% CI 1.79, 4.93 in MHOO to MUNW group and HR 3.38; 95% CI 2.54, 4.49 in MHOO to MUOO group). Instead, improvements to metabolic healthy phenotypes or weight loss occurring in MUOO reduced the risk of diabetes compared with stable MUOO, changing from MUOO to MHNW, MUNW, and MHOO resulted in HRs of 0.57 (95% CI 0.37, 0.87), 0.68 (95% CI 0.50, 0.93), and 0.45 (95% CI 0.34, 0.60), respectively.
Conclusion:
People with MHOO, even stable MHOO, or its transition to metabolically unhealthy phenotypes were at increased risk of diabetes. Metabolic improvements and weight control may reduce the risk of diabetes.
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