Predictors of combat training attrition in Israel Defense Forces soldiers

Attrition from combat service carries significant organizational and personal ramifications, but predicting factors associated with attrition remains challenging.

To evaluate medical and psychosocial factors associated with attrition from basic combat training (BCT) in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). In addition, we identify subsets of the recruit population which exhibit certain trends in terms of medical corresponding with a high risk of attrition.

A cross-sectional study of IDF combat trainees undergoing infantry BCT between 2012 and 2017. Data were collected from the soldiers' electronic medical and administrative records. We used multivariable logistic regression and the SAS® decision-tree tool to analyse key predictive factors for attrition.

A total of 46 472 soldiers enlisted to BCT during the research period. The mean body mass index (BMI) was 21.8 (SD 3.54). The overall attrition rate was 10%. The following factors were associated with attrition from BCT: ethnicity (P < 0.01), BMI (P < 0.01), pre-enlisting motivation score (P < 0.01) and the number of mental health officer visits (P < 0.01). Using a decision-tree model, we found a high attrition rate among soldiers who had >5.2 to primary care physician visits (11% attrition rate versus 3%) or more than 11 sick leave days (59% versus 19%).

This study sheds light on unique measures relating to attrition. Attrition is associated with several demographic and psychosocial factors. Early prediction of motivation and monitoring of healthcare utilization may enable early identification and focused interventions targeting soldiers at high risk for attrition. These findings need to be further translated into actionable directives and further investigations.