Optimized multilateral crop trade patterns can effectively mitigate phosphorus imbalance among the involved countries

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Resource Management

Background:

• Phosphorus imbalance in croplands significantly impacts environmental quality and agricultural productivity.
• Current multilateral crop trade patterns, particularly between China and Central Asia, are identified as a driver of phosphorus imbalance intensification.

Purpose of the Study:

• To calculate phosphorus budgets in China and five Central Asian countries.
• To propose and evaluate two optimal multilateral crop trade models for mitigating phosphorus imbalance.

Main Methods:

• Calculation of phosphorus budgets for China and Central Asian countries.
• Development of single- and bilevel-objective-based crop trade models.
• Analysis of phosphorus imbalance mitigation under optimal trade scenarios.

Main Results:

• Current trade intensifies phosphorus imbalance, with China and Uzbekistan showing surpluses and Central Asian nations showing deficits.
• Optimal trade patterns significantly reduce phosphorus imbalance in China and Kyrgyzstan.
• Mitigation of phosphorus imbalance in other Central Asian countries ranges from 11.9% to 28.2%.

Conclusions:

• Multilateral crop trade optimization is a viable strategy for resolving cropland phosphorus imbalance.
• The study provides a scientific foundation for policy development in global phosphorus management.
• Enhanced crop trading can promote sustainable agricultural systems and environmental quality worldwide.