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A nomogram for predicting the 4-year risk of chronic kidney disease among Chinese elderly adults

Lijuan Zhang1, Lan Tang2, Siyu Chen1

  • 1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.

International Urology and Nephrology
|January 31, 2023
PubMed

Insights

A new nomogram predicts the 4-year risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Chinese adults using factors like hypertension and eGFR. This tool aids in early identification of individuals at higher risk for CKD.

Area of Science:

  • Nephrology
  • Public Health
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Chronic kidney disease (CKD) presents a significant global health challenge with diverse complications.
  • Early identification of individuals at risk is crucial for timely intervention and management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for the 4-year risk of CKD in the Chinese adult population.
  • To provide a tool for identifying individuals with an elevated risk of developing CKD.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) with 3562 participants.
  • Employed logistic regression to select predictive variables and validated the nomogram using ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Main Results:

  • The nomogram incorporated gender, hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), hemoglobin, and Cystatin C.
  • Achieved high predictive accuracy with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.809 (training) and 0.837 (validation).
  • Demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed probabilities, with potential clinical utility indicated by DCA.

Conclusions:

  • An internally validated predictive nomogram for 4-year CKD risk was successfully established.
  • The nomogram serves as a valuable tool for identifying Chinese adults at increased risk of developing CKD.
Abstract

Keywords:
CHARLSChronic kidney diseaseElderly adultsNomogram

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