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Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany.

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    This summary is machine-generated.

    German citizens' trust in the European Central Bank's inflation target has declined, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, due to rising inflation expectations.

    Keywords:
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    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Behavioral Economics
    • Survey Research

    Background:

    • The European Central Bank defines price stability as inflation below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
    • Understanding public inflation expectations and central bank credibility is crucial for monetary policy effectiveness.
    • The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted economic conditions and may have influenced public perceptions of inflation.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To measure long-term inflation expectations among German citizens.
    • To assess the credibility of the European Central Bank's inflation target.
    • To investigate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and personal characteristics on inflation expectations.

    Main Methods:

    • A representative online survey of German citizens was conducted starting in January 2019.
    • The survey utilized the European Central Bank's definition of price stability.
    • Data analysis considered personal characteristics such as age, gender, education, and political attitude.

    Main Results:

    • Survey results indicate a decrease in the credibility of the inflation target during the sample period.
    • Credibility declined notably during the recessionary period associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • Despite inflation rates below 2%, credibility eroded as participants increasingly expected inflation to exceed 2% in the medium term.

    Conclusions:

    • Public credibility in the European Central Bank's inflation target has diminished.
    • The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have exacerbated the decline in credibility.
    • Future research should explore the demographic and political factors influencing inflation expectations.