Employment success of social assistance recipients: A provincial analysis by industry

Poverty continues to burden millions of Canadians each year, and social assistance (SA) is one program that provides last-resort financial assistance, conditional upon looking for and accepting work. Using tax panel data of SA recipients from across seven Canadian regions between 2000 and 2018, we model the probabilities of employment success (ES) across industry of employment, SA benefit amounts, unionization, and individual-level characteristics. We adopt an economic stance to explain reliance upon SA, examining the broader macroeconomic indicators of ES, and to demonstrate the factors associated with exiting SA. We find that many SA recipients do not present evidence of recent employment, indicating a disconnect between stated SA program aims and their outcomes. We provide evidence for increased SA benefits and unionization as significant predictors of ES of SA recipients.