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Forecasting the energy intensity of industrial sector in China based on FCM-RS-SVM model
1School of Management, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510520, China.
Abstract:
Analysis of industrial energy intensity is greatly significant in China specifically from the perspective of sector heterogeneity due to considerably different levels of energy utilization in various industrial sub-sectors. This study proposes a new methodology to forecast energy intensity in industrial sub-sectors, considering the complexity of the socioeconomic system. This research collects the data of 36 industrial sub-sectors in China and combines fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM), rough set (RS) and support vector machine (SVM) to predict the energy intensity of industrial sub-sectors in 2030. First, this method classifies all the industrial sub-sectors according to energy intensity level and identifies the main factors that affect the energy consumption of the industrial sub-sectors. Second, the resulting classification paves the way for specifying models to forecast energy consumption. Finally, scenario analysis predicts the energy intensity of each industrial sub-sector in 2030. This exploration has the following results. (1) Energy intensity has significantly different trends in various industrial sub-sectors. For example, industrial sub-sectors with low energy intensity mainly belong to the manufacturing industry (S06-S33). In contrast, the medium- and high-energy intensity categories mainly belong to the mining industry (S01-S05) and energy extraction and supply industry (S34-S36). (2) The critical factors affecting industrial energy consumption are fixed assets, R&D investment, and labor investment. (3) By 2030, the energy intensity has a downward trend in various industrial sub-sectors in China. The scenario analysis implies that China's energy intensity would reach the current world average level under the low-speed development scenario. Also, China's energy intensity would reach the current world advanced level under the medium-speed or high-speed development scenario.
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