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Published on: July 26, 2019
Estimating the future global dose demand for measles-rubella microarray patches
Melissa Ko1, Stefano Malvolti2, Thomas Cherian1
1MMGH Consulting GmbH, Geneva, Switzerland.
Background:
Progress toward measles and rubella (MR) elimination has stagnated as countries are unable to reach the required 95% vaccine coverage. Microarray patches (MAPs) are anticipated to offer significant programmatic advantages to needle and syringe (N/S) presentation and increase MR vaccination coverage. A demand forecast analysis of the programmatic doses required (PDR) could accelerate MR-MAP development by informing the size and return of the investment required to manufacture MAPs.
Methods:
Unconstrained global MR-MAP demand for 2030-2040 was estimated for three scenarios, for groups of countries with similar characteristics (archetypes), and four types of uses of MR-MAPs (use cases). The base scenario 1 assumed that MR-MAPs would replace a share of MR doses delivered by N/S, and that MAPs can reach a proportion of previously unimmunised populations. Scenario 2 assumed that MR-MAPs would be piloted in selected countries in each region of the World Health Organization (WHO); and scenario 3 explored introduction of MR-MAPs earlier in countries with the lowest measles vaccine coverage and highest MR disease burden. We conducted sensitivity analyses to measure the impact of data uncertainty.
Results:
For the base scenario (1), the estimated global PDR for MR-MAPs was forecasted at 30 million doses in 2030 and increased to 220 million doses by 2040. Compared to scenario 1, scenario 2 resulted in an overall decrease in PDR of 18%, and scenario 3 resulted in a 21% increase in PDR between 2030 and 2040. Sensitivity analyses revealed that assumptions around the anticipated reach or coverage of MR-MAPs, particularly in the hard-to-reach and MOV populations, and the market penetration of MR-MAPs significantly impacted the estimated PDR.
Conclusions:
Significant demand is expected for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040, however, efforts are required to address remaining data quality, uncertainties and gaps that underpin the assumptions in this analysis.
Insights
Measles and rubella microarray patches (MR-MAPs) show significant demand potential, with forecasts reaching 220 million doses by 2040. Further research is needed to address data gaps for accurate forecasting of MR-MAPs.
Area of Science:
- Vaccinology
- Global Health
- Health Economics
Background:
- Measles and rubella (MR) elimination efforts are hindered by suboptimal vaccine coverage.
- Microarray patches (MAPs) offer potential programmatic advantages over needle and syringe (N/S) delivery for MR vaccination.
- Demand forecasting for MR-MAPs can guide manufacturing investment and development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the global programmatic doses required (PDR) for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040.
- To analyze demand under different implementation scenarios and country archetypes.
- To inform investment decisions for MR-MAP manufacturing.
Main Methods:
- Global MR-MAP demand was estimated for 2030-2040 across three scenarios.
- Analysis considered country archetypes and different use cases for MR-MAPs.
- Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of data uncertainty.
Main Results:
- Base scenario forecasts 30 million MR-MAP doses in 2030, rising to 220 million by 2040.
- Scenario 2 predicted an 18% decrease, while Scenario 3 predicted a 21% increase in PDR.
- Reach, coverage in hard-to-reach populations, and market penetration significantly influenced PDR estimates.
Conclusions:
- Substantial global demand for MR-MAPs is anticipated between 2030 and 2040.
- Addressing data quality, uncertainties, and gaps is crucial for refining demand forecasts.
- Further analysis will support the development and scale-up of MR-MAPs for improved vaccination coverage.
