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Use of an Influenza Antigen Microarray to Measure the Breadth of Serum Antibodies Across Virus Subtypes
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Estimating the future global dose demand for measles-rubella microarray patches.

Melissa Ko1, Stefano Malvolti2, Thomas Cherian1

  • 1MMGH Consulting GmbH, Geneva, Switzerland.

Frontiers in Public Health
|February 2, 2023
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Measles and rubella microarray patches (MR-MAPs) show significant demand potential, with forecasts reaching 220 million doses by 2040. Further research is needed to address data gaps for accurate forecasting of MR-MAPs.

Keywords:
demand and supplydemand forecastmeaslesmicroarray patchmicroneedlerubella

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Area of Science:

  • Vaccinology
  • Global Health
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Measles and rubella (MR) elimination efforts are hindered by suboptimal vaccine coverage.
  • Microarray patches (MAPs) offer potential programmatic advantages over needle and syringe (N/S) delivery for MR vaccination.
  • Demand forecasting for MR-MAPs can guide manufacturing investment and development.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the global programmatic doses required (PDR) for MR-MAPs between 2030 and 2040.
  • To analyze demand under different implementation scenarios and country archetypes.
  • To inform investment decisions for MR-MAP manufacturing.

Main Methods:

  • Global MR-MAP demand was estimated for 2030-2040 across three scenarios.
  • Analysis considered country archetypes and different use cases for MR-MAPs.
  • Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of data uncertainty.

Main Results:

  • Base scenario forecasts 30 million MR-MAP doses in 2030, rising to 220 million by 2040.
  • Scenario 2 predicted an 18% decrease, while Scenario 3 predicted a 21% increase in PDR.
  • Reach, coverage in hard-to-reach populations, and market penetration significantly influenced PDR estimates.

Conclusions:

  • Substantial global demand for MR-MAPs is anticipated between 2030 and 2040.
  • Addressing data quality, uncertainties, and gaps is crucial for refining demand forecasts.
  • Further analysis will support the development and scale-up of MR-MAPs for improved vaccination coverage.