Possible factors determining global-scale patterns of crop yield sensitivity to drought

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Droughts critically limit crop production, causing significant food system shocks globally.
• Crop yield variability is substantially influenced by drought across large harvested areas, highlighting crop systems' vulnerability.
• Key determinants of global crop yield sensitivity to drought remain poorly understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate physical and socioeconomic factors influencing crop yield sensitivity to drought.
• To identify key environmental and crop management factors affecting crop-drought vulnerability.
• To provide insights for developing better crop vulnerability measures under future drought stress.

Main Methods:

• Utilized machine learning approaches to analyze crop-drought sensitivity.
• Employed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 0.5° resolution for data analysis.
• Examined data from 1981 to 2016, covering a wide range of physical and socioeconomic factors.

Main Results:

• Spatial variations in crop-drought sensitivity are primarily explained by environmental factors (annual precipitation, soil water-holding capacity, soil acidity, annual potential evapotranspiration).
• Crop management factors, including fertilizer rate and growing season length, also significantly influence crop-drought sensitivity.
• Factors like annual precipitation, soil water holding capacity, and fertilizer rate show potential in mitigating crop-drought vulnerability.

Conclusions:

• Environmental and crop management factors are crucial determinants of global crop yield sensitivity to drought.
• Understanding these factors is essential for developing effective strategies to enhance crop resilience to drought.
• This research offers quantitative insights into factors controlling crop vulnerability, informing future resilience studies.