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Understanding the Risk of Sexual Reoffending in Adult Men: A Network-Based Model.

Jan Willem van den Berg1,2, Daan J van Beek3, Yvonne H A Bouman1

  • 1Transfore, Outpatient Clinic De Tender, Deventer, the Netherlands.

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Summary

The Network-Based Model of Risk of Sexual Reoffending (NBM-RSR) offers a new framework for understanding how dynamic risk factors interact to influence sexual reoffending risk. It proposes that risk emerges from a self-sustaining network of causally linked factors.

Keywords:
causal networkdynamic risk factorsnetwork approachrisk of sexual reoffendingsexual recidivism

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Psychology
  • Criminology
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • The Propensities Model is the primary framework for understanding dynamic risk factors in sexual reoffending.
  • This model conceptualizes dynamic risk factors as latent constructs, but does not fully explain their contribution to reoffending risk or sustained change.
  • Limitations exist in understanding the mechanisms and developmental pathways of sexual reoffending risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Introduce the Network-Based Model of Risk of Sexual Reoffending (NBM-RSR).
  • Address limitations of the Propensities Model.
  • Offer empirically testable propositions on the nature and development of sexual reoffending risk.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptualize sexual reoffending risk as a self-sustaining network of causally connected dynamic risk factors.
  • Propose that increased risk is characterized by a network with more numerous and stronger interconnected factors.
  • Define sustained change in risk as network activity exceeding a critical point, leading to a new self-sustaining network.

Main Results:

  • The NBM-RSR provides a novel network perspective on sexual reoffending risk.
  • The model posits that risk is a function of the interconnectedness and strength of dynamic risk factors within a network.
  • Sustained changes in risk are explained by critical transitions within this network structure.

Conclusions:

  • The NBM-RSR offers a more comprehensive understanding of sexual reoffending risk dynamics.
  • The model generates testable hypotheses regarding network construction, stability, and transitions in risk.
  • Future research can explore the relative influence of dynamic risk factors within the proposed network framework.