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The less obvious effect of hosting the Olympics on sporting performance
Gergely Csurilla1,2, Imre Fertő3,4,5
1Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Tóth Kálmán U. 4., 1097, Budapest, Hungary. csurilla.gergely@krtk.hu.
Scientific Reports
|February 2, 2023
Summary
The Olympic Games
Area of Science:
- Sports Economics
- Olympic Studies
- Socioeconomic Impact Analysis
Background:
- Hosting the Olympic Games is often associated with financial benefits and a "home advantage" in medal counts.
- Previous studies and public discourse suggest a significant medal surplus for host nations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the magnitude of the Olympic host effect on medal counts.
- To analyze this effect separately for each organizing country and by gender.
- To examine the ex-ante and post-Olympic impact on medal surplus.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of Summer Olympic Games data from 1996-2021.
- Application of three statistical models (total medals, men's medals, women's medals).
- Utilized a zero-inflated negative binomial estimator due to zero-inflated response variable.
Main Results:
- The claimed Olympic host effect diminishes when socioeconomic variables are controlled.
- A host effect is more apparent for medals won by men than by women.
- Ex-ante and post-Olympic effects are sometimes detectable but also fade with control variables.
Conclusions:
- The medal surplus associated with hosting the Olympics is less pronounced than commonly believed.
- Socioeconomic factors play a significant role in explaining medal count variations.
- The 'home advantage' narrative requires re-evaluation in light of empirical evidence.
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