Patterns of dreissenid mussel invasions in western US lakes within an integrated gravity model framework

Freshwater invasive species, such as the quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis), are causing over $1 billion USD annually in damages to water infrastructure, recreation, and the environment. Once established, quagga and other dreissenid mussels are extremely difficult to eradicate. Preventing the spread of these invasives is critical and of high management concern. Invasive dreissenid establishment is predicated upon both successful dispersal from a source and suitable habitat in the uninfested waterbody to which they are transported. Recreational boaters have become predominant dispersal vectors making it possible to forecast the risk of invasion of waterbodies for more targeted management and prevention. We developed an integrated mussel dispersal model that couples a constrained gravity model and habitat suitability model to forecast future invasions. The model simulates boater movement between lakes, the likelihood of boats transporting mussels, and the likelihood that those mussels survive in the environmental conditions of the new lake. Model output was most sensitive to changes in boater threshold, then buffer zones, while not as sensitive to changes in habitat suitability. From an initial infested source pool of 11 among 402 Western inland US lakes, we forecast additional lakes infested in several possible simulation scenarios. Constraining movement reduced connectivity between waterbodies with amplifying effects at different distance levels. This model can be used to determine waterbodies most at risk for dreissenid mussel invasion and to highlight the importance of multifactor integrated models in environmental management.