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Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes.

Janine A Baijnath-Rodino1, Phong V V Le2, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou3

  • 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.

The Science of the Total Environment
|February 3, 2023
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Fire danger potential is increasing most rapidly in the September-November season, particularly in tropical and temperate forests. Rising temperatures correlate with increased fire danger in Northern Hemisphere temperate and tropical biomes.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Global climate change is altering natural ecosystems.
  • Understanding fire danger dynamics is crucial for ecosystem management and risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify seasons and biomes with significant changes in fire danger potential (FWI).
  • To explore fire behavior potentials (ERC, IC) contributing to these changes.
  • To analyze the relationship between fire potentials and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation) across biomes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized ERA5 and CRU TS datasets for fire potentials, temperature, and precipitation (1980-2019).
  • Applied the Mann-Kendall test to detect significant spatiotemporal trends in fire danger and behavior potentials.
  • Correlated fire potentials with seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation totals across biomes.

Main Results:

  • The September-November (SON) season showed the highest increase in fire danger potential, followed by June-August (JJA).
  • Temperate biomes experienced the greatest increase in fire intensity and ignition potential, especially during December-February (DJF) and March-May (MAM).
  • Positive correlations between fire danger potential and temperature were found in JJA for Northern Hemisphere temperate and tropical biomes.

Conclusions:

  • Fire danger potential is escalating, with distinct seasonal and biome-specific patterns.
  • Changes in fire behavior potentials are linked to climatic shifts, particularly temperature increases.
  • These findings offer quantitative insights into regional fire risk dynamics under climate change.