Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex detection in rural goat herds in South Africa using Bayesian latent class analysis

Animal tuberculosis affects a wide range of domestic and wild animal species, including goats (Capra hircus). In South Africa, Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) testing and surveillance in domestic goats is not widely applied, potentially leading to under recognition of goats as a potential source of M. bovis spread to cattle as well as humans and wildlife. The aim of this study was to estimate diagnostic test performance for four assays and determine whether M. bovis infection was present in goats sharing communal pastures with M. bovis positive cattle in the Umkhanyakude district of Northern Zululand, KwaZulu Natal. In 2019, 137 M. bovis-exposed goats were screened for MTBC infection with four diagnostic tests: the in vivo single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin test (SICCT), in vitro QuantiFERON®-TB Gold (QFT) bovine interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA), QFT bovine interferon gamma induced protein 10 (IP-10) release assay (IPRA), and nasal swabs tested with the Cepheid GeneXpert® MTB/RIF Ultra (GXU) assay for detection of MTBC DNA. A Bayesian latent class analysis was used to estimate MTBC prevalence and diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity. Among the 137 M. bovis-exposed goats, positive test results were identified in 15/136 (11.0%) goats by the SICCT; 4/128 (3.1%) goats by the IPRA; 2/128 (1.6%) goats by the IGRA; and 26/134 (19.4%) nasal swabs by the GXU. True prevalence was estimated by our model to be 1.1%, suggesting that goats in these communal herds are infected with MTBC at a low level. Estimated posterior means across the four evaluated assays ranged from 62.7% to 80.9% for diagnostic sensitivity and from 82.9% to 97.9% for diagnostic specificity, albeit estimates of the former (diagnostic sensitivity) were dependent on model assumptions. The application of a Bayesian latent class analysis and multiple ante-mortem test results may improve detection of MTBC, especially when prevalence is low. Our results provide a foundation for further investigation to confirm infection in communal goat herds and identify previously unrecognized sources of intra- and inter-species transmission of MTBC.