A genome-wide association study of germline variation and melanoma prognosis

The high mortality of cutaneous melanoma (CM) is partly due to unpredictable patterns of disease progression in patients with early-stage lesions. The reliable prediction of advanced disease risk from early-stage CM, is an urgent clinical need, especially given the recent expansion of immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy to the adjuvant setting. In our study, we comprehensively investigated the role of germline variants as CM prognostic markers.

We performed a genome-wide association analysis in two independent cohorts of N=551 (discovery), and N=550 (validation) early-stage immunotherapy-naïve melanoma patients. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify associations with overall survival in the discovery group, followed by a validation analysis. Transcriptomic profiling and survival analysis were used to elucidate the biological relevance of candidate genes associated with CM progression.

We found two independent associations of germline variants with melanoma prognosis. The alternate alleles of these two SNPs were both associated with an increased risk of death [rs60970102 in MELK: HR=3.14 (2.05-4.81), p=1.48×10^-7; and rs77480547 in SH3BP4: HR=3.02 (2.02-4.52), p=7.58×10^-8, both in the pooled cohort]. The addition of the combined risk alleles (CRA) of the identified variants into the prognostic model improved the predictive power, as opposed to a model of clinical covariates alone.

Our study provides suggestive evidence of novel melanoma germline prognostic markers, implicating two candidate genes: an oncogene MELK and a tumor suppressor SH3BP4, both previously suggested to affect CM progression. Pending further validation, these findings suggest that the genetic factors may improve the prognostic stratification of high-risk early-stage CM patients, and propose putative biological insights for potential therapeutic investigation of these targets to prevent aggressive outcome from early-stage melanoma.