Cognitive biases in surgery: systematic review

Although numerous studies have established cognitive biases as contributors to surgical adverse events, their prevalence and impact in surgery are unknown. This review aimed to describe types of cognitive bias in surgery, their impact on surgical performance and patient outcomes, their source, and the mitigation strategies used to reduce their effect.

A literature search was conducted on 9 April and 6 December 2021 using MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Included studies investigated how cognitive biases affect surgery and the mitigation strategies used to combat their impact. The National Institutes of Health tools were used to assess study quality. Inductive thematic analysis was used to identify themes of cognitive bias impact on surgical performance.

Thirty-nine studies were included, comprising 6514 surgeons and over 200 000 patients. Thirty-one types of cognitive bias were identified, with overconfidence, anchoring, and confirmation bias the most common. Cognitive biases differentially influenced six themes of surgical performance. For example, overconfidence bias associated with inaccurate perceptions of ability, whereas anchoring bias associated with inaccurate risk-benefit estimations and not considering alternative options. Anchoring and confirmation biases associated with actual patient harm, such as never events. No studies investigated cognitive bias source or mitigation strategies.

Cognitive biases have a negative impact on surgical performance and patient outcomes across all points of surgical care. This review highlights the scarcity of research investigating the sources that give rise to cognitive biases in surgery and the mitigation strategies that target these factors.