Effects of satisfying and violating expectations on serial dependence

Serial dependence refers to the phenomenon that observers tend to report stimuli as being more similar to previous stimuli than they really are (attractive dependence) or, in some cases, as more different than they really are (repulsive dependence). Numerous experiments have demonstrated serial dependence for a range of modalities and stimulus features, highlighting the role of bottom-up sensory interactions. However, comparatively less research has focused on how higher-level cognitive factors, such as expectations, might influence serial dependence. Here, we manipulated expectations by having observers respond to target luminance gratings that occurred at the end of a sequence of non-target gratings. The sequence either rotated predictably (inducing an expectation), varied randomly (inducing no expectation), or rotated predictably but had a random target orientation (violating expectations). We found that observers produced less errors and indicated less uncertainty in their estimations of expected stimuli but their responses were biased away from the penultimate stimulus in the sequence (repulsive dependence). In contrast, following random sequences, responses showed an attractive bias to the penultimate stimulus in the sequence. Unexpected targets showed a mixture of both biases, such that when targets happened (by chance) to appear as expected, responses were repulsed, but responses to target orientations that more clearly violated expectations were attracted. These results indicate that, whereas attraction to previous stimuli may be a default strategy employed in response to random and unexpected events, certain expectations can reverse the default bias into a repulsive one.