Reducing global inequality to secure human wellbeing and climate safety: a modelling study

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Energy Systems Analysis
• Socioeconomics

Background:

• Global climate mitigation ambitions necessitate unprecedented emissions reductions.
• Current scenarios rely on unproven negative-emissions technologies with trade-offs.
• Low energy demand scenarios offer an alternative but must address equitable living standards.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the simultaneous achievement of a climate-safe, low energy demand future and universal decent living standards.
• To analyze the impact of current global inequalities on energy access in low-demand scenarios.
• To determine the necessary reductions in energy inequality and increases in technological equity.

Main Methods:

• Combined data on global/regional energy inequalities with 2050 low energy demand scenarios.
• Utilized threshold analysis to estimate populations below decent living energy thresholds.
• Estimated required reductions in energy inequality and increases in technological equity.

Main Results:

• Unprecedented reductions in income and energy inequalities are essential for climate safety and decent living for all.
• Without reducing energy inequality, over 4 billion people will lack decent living energy in a low-demand future.
• Significant reductions in the global Gini coefficient for income inequality are projected to be necessary.

Conclusions:

• Transformational change is needed to reconcile the current economic system with planetary and human health.
• Addressing global challenges requires confronting inherent economic inequalities.
• Alternative pathways to meet global challenges without drastic inequality reduction are discussed.