Using machine learning to estimate the calendar age based on autonomic cardiovascular function

Aging is accompanied by physiological changes in cardiovascular regulation that can be evaluated using a variety of metrics. In this study, we employ machine learning on autonomic cardiovascular indices in order to estimate participants' age.

We analyzed a database including resting state electrocardiogram and continuous blood pressure recordings of healthy volunteers. A total of 884 data sets met the inclusion criteria. Data of 72 other participants with an BMI indicating obesity (>30 kg/m^²) were withheld as an evaluation sample. For all participants, 29 different cardiovascular indices were calculated including heart rate variability, blood pressure variability, baroreflex function, pulse wave dynamics, and QT interval characteristics. Based on cardiovascular indices, sex and device, four different approaches were applied in order to estimate the calendar age of healthy subjects, i.e., relevance vector regression (RVR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), and linear regression (LR). To estimate age in the obese group, we drew normal-weight controls from the large sample to build a training set and a validation set that had an age distribution similar to the obesity test sample.

In a five-fold cross validation scheme, we found the GPR model to be suited best to estimate calendar age, with a correlation of r=0.81 and a mean absolute error of MAE=5.6 years. In men, the error (MAE=5.4 years) seemed to be lower than that in women (MAE=6.0 years). In comparison to normal-weight subjects, GPR and SVR significantly overestimated the age of obese participants compared with controls. The highest age gap indicated advanced cardiovascular aging by 5.7 years in obese participants.

In conclusion, machine learning can be used to estimate age on cardiovascular function in a healthy population when considering previous models of biological aging. The estimated age might serve as a comprehensive and readily interpretable marker of cardiovascular function. Whether it is a useful risk predictor should be investigated in future studies.