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Development and Validation of a Bedside Dengue Severity Score for Predicting Severe Dengue in Children
Vaitheeswaran Gayathri1, Shanmugavel Velmurugan Lakshmi1, Sivaraman Senthil Murugan1
1Institute of Child Health and Hospital for Children, Madras Medical College, Chennai, Tamil Nadu.
Objective:
To develop and validate a bedside dengue severity score in children less than 12 years for predicting severe dengue disease.
Methods:
We carried out an analysis of data on the clinical and laboratory parameters of patients with confirmed dengue, hospitalized in October, 2019 at our center. A comprehensive patient's score was developed. Predictive models for severity were built using a forward step-wise method. This model was validated on the data of 312 children with dengue admitted during September- October, 2021.
Results:
Severe dengue was predicted by the dengue severity score with a sensitivity of 86.75% (95% CI 77.52%-93.19%), specificity of 98.25% (95% CI 95.56-99.52%), a positive predictive value of 95.34% (95% CI 92.18%-97.26%) and a negative predictive value of 94.74% (95% CI 87.16%-97.95%). The overall predictive accuracy was 95.2% (95% CI 92.19%-97.28%).
Conclusion:
The proposed bedside dengue severity scoring system was found to have good validity. Validating the score in different settings and patient populations is suggested.
