Development and validation of a brief screener for posttraumatic stress disorder risk in emergency medical settings

Predicting risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the acute care setting is challenging given the pace and acute care demands in the emergency department (ED) and the infeasibility of using time-consuming assessments. Currently, no accurate brief screening for long-term PTSD risk is routinely used in the ED. One instrument widely used in the ED is the 27-item Immediate Stress Reaction Checklist (ISRC). The aim of this study was to develop a short screener using a machine learning approach and to investigate whether accurate PTSD prediction in the ED can be achieved with substantially fewer items than the IRSC.

This prospective longitudinal cohort study examined the development and validation of a brief screening instrument in two independent samples, a model development sample (N = 253) and an external validation sample (N = 93). We used a feature selection algorithm to identify a minimal subset of features of the ISRC and tested this subset in a predictive model to investigate if we can accurately predict long-term PTSD outcomes.

We were able to identify a reduced subset of 5 highly predictive features of the ISRC in the model development sample (AUC = 0.80), and we were able to validate those findings in the external validation sample (AUC = 0.84) to discriminate non-remitting vs. resilient trajectories.

This study developed and validated a brief 5-item screener in the ED setting, which may help to improve the diagnostic process of PTSD in the acute care setting and help ED clinicians plan follow-up care when patients are still in contact with the healthcare system. This could reduce the burden on patients and decrease the risk of chronic PTSD.