Critically ill patient mortality by age: long-term follow-up (CIMbA-LT)

The past years have witnessed dramatic changes in the population admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Older and sicker patients are now commonly treated in this setting due to the newly available sophisticated life support. However, the short- and long-term benefit of this strategy is scarcely studied.

The Critically Ill patients' mortality by age: Long-Term follow-up (CIMbA-LT) was a multicentric, nationwide, retrospective, observational study addressing short- and long-term prognosis of patients admitted to Portuguese multipurpose ICUs, during 4 years, according to their age and disease severity. Patients were followed for two years after ICU admission. The standardized hospital mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated according to the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and the follow-up risk, for patients discharged alive from the hospital, according to official demographic national data for age and gender. Survival curves were plotted according to age group.

We included 37.118 patients, including 15.8% over 80 years old. The mean SAPS II score was 42.8 ± 19.4. The ICU all-cause mortality was 16.1% and 76% of all patients survive until hospital discharge. The SAPS II score overestimated hospital mortality [SMR at hospital discharge 0.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.76] but accurately predicted one-year all-cause mortality [1-year SMR 1.01; (95% CI 0.98-1.08)]. Survival curves showed a peak in mortality, during the first 30 days, followed by a much slower survival decline thereafter. Older patients had higher short- and long-term mortality and their hospital SMR was also slightly higher (0.76 vs. 0.69). Patients discharged alive from the hospital had a 1-year relative mortality risk of 6.3; [95% CI 5.8-6.7]. This increased risk was higher for younger patients [21.1; (95% CI 15.1-39.6) vs. 2.4; (95% CI 2.2-2.7) for older patients].

Critically ill patients' mortality peaked in the first 30 days after ICU admission. Older critically ill patients had higher all-cause mortality, including a higher hospital SMR. A long-term increased relative mortality risk was noted in patients discharged alive from the hospital, but this was more noticeable in younger patients.