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Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change.

Francisco J Pérez-Invernón1,2, Francisco J Gordillo-Vázquez3, Heidi Huntrieser4

  • 1Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n, Granada, 18008, Andalucía, Spain. fjpi@iaa.es.

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Global lightning-ignited wildfires may increase significantly due to a projected 41% rise in Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes. Climate change impacts LCC lightning, a key wildfire igniter, necessitating updated wildfire models.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Climate Science
  • Wildfire Science

Background:

  • Lightning is a primary driver of natural wildfires.
  • Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are identified as key igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW).
  • Previous research indicates shifts in total lightning patterns, but wildfire sensitivity to climate change remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning linked to wildfire ignitions.
  • To project future LCC lightning occurrence under climate change scenarios.
  • To assess the implications for lightning-ignited wildfire risk.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized space-based measurements of LCC lightning.
  • Applied a novel LCC lightning parameterization model based on thunderstorm updraft strength.
  • Generated LCC lightning projections for the 2090s using the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0.

Main Results:

  • A projected 41% global increase in LCC lightning flash rates by the 2090s.
  • Significant LCC lightning increases anticipated in South America, North America, Central America, Australia, Asia, and Europe.
  • Regional variations noted in northern polar forests, with implications for permafrost carbon release.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change is projected to increase LCC lightning, a critical wildfire igniter.
  • Accurate wildfire projections require lightning schemes that explicitly incorporate LCC lightning.
  • Updated modeling is essential for understanding and mitigating future wildfire risks.