The natural history of a delayed detectable PSA after radical prostatectomy

Men with a detectable PSA after radical prostatectomy (RP) are often offered salvage therapy while those with an undetectable PSA are monitored. We aim to better characterize the natural history of men with an initially undetectable PSA who subsequently developed a detectable PSA > 6 months after RP.

Retrospective analysis of men who underwent RP for clinically localized prostate cancer at the University of California, San Francisco from 2000 to 2022. The primary outcome was biochemical recurrence, defined as 2 consecutive PSA > = 0.03 ng/mL starting 6 months after surgery. Secondary outcomes were salvage treatment, post-salvage treatment, metastasis free survival (MFS), prostate cancer specific mortality (PCSM), and all-cause mortality (ACM). This cohort was compared to a previously described cohort who had an immediately detectable post-operative PSA.

From our cohort of 3348 patients, we identified 2868 men who had an undetectable post-op PSA. Subsequently, 642 men had a delayed detectable PSA at a median of 25 months (IQR 15, 43) with median follow-up of 72 months after RP. PSA at time of failure was <0.10 ng/mL for 65.7% of men. Of those with a delayed detectable PSA, 46% underwent salvage treatment within 10 years after RP at a median PSA of 0.08 ng/mL (IQR 0.05, 0.14). High CAPRA-S score (HR 1.09, CI 1.02-1.17, p = 0.02) and PSA doubling time (PSA-DT) of <6 months (HR 7.58, CI 5.42-10.6, p < 0.01) were associated with receiving salvage treatment. After salvage treatment, 62% of men had recurrent PSA failure within 10 years. Overall, MFS was 92%, PCSM 3%, and ACM 6% at 10 years. For those who received tertiary treatment for recurrent PSA failure, MFS was 54%, PCSM 23% and ACM 23% at 10 years' time.

Men who develop a detectable PSA > 6 months post-operatively may have excellent long-term outcomes, even in the absence of salvage therapy.