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Optimization of the Territorial Spatial Patterns Based on MOP and PLUS Models: A Case Study from Hefei City, China
Ran Yu1,2, Hongsheng Cheng1, Yun Ye1
1School of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China.
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|February 11, 2023
Summary
Optimizing territorial spatial patterns in Hefei city balances economic and ecological goals. Construction land use is projected to peak by 2030, followed by farmland rebound and ecological corridor development.
Area of Science:
- Urban and Regional Planning
- Geographic Information Systems
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Territorial spatial patterns are influenced by economic, social, ecological, and environmental factors.
- Sustainable optimization of spatial patterns requires balancing multiple objectives.
- Integrating spatial scale prediction and layout simulation is crucial for comprehensive territorial spatial planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To optimize territorial spatial patterns in Hefei city by integrating scale prediction and layout simulation.
- To analyze the future trends of land use and its driving factors.
- To provide insights for sustainable urban and regional development.
Main Methods:
- Multiple Objective Programming (MOP) model for territorial spatial scale optimization.
- Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model for spatial layout simulation.
- Utilized statistical, empirical, land utilization, and spatially driven data.
Main Results:
- Carbon accumulation and economic/ecological benefits are projected to increase, with carbon emissions peaking in 2030.
- Construction land use is expected to transition from reduced to negative growth post-2030, with farmland beginning to rebound.
- Urban expansion is predicted primarily westward, with supplemental growth east and north, and the development of an ecological corridor.
Conclusions:
- The study highlights 2030 as a critical turning point for Hefei's land use dynamics.
- Integrated spatial planning considering both scale and layout is essential for sustainable development.
- The findings offer valuable guidance for future land use management and ecological conservation in rapidly developing regions.
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