Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Rolling Bearings Using GRU-DeepAR with Adaptive Failure Threshold

Aiming at the problem that a single neural network model has difficulty in accurately predicting trends of the remaining useful life of a rolling bearing, a method of predicting the remaining useful life of rolling bearings using a gated recurrent unit-deep autoregressive model (GRU-DeepAR) with an adaptive failure threshold was proposed. First, time domain and frequency domain features were extracted from the rolling bearing vibration signal. Second, its operation process was divided into a smooth operation stage and degradation stage according to the trend of the accumulated root mean square of maximum. Then, the failure threshold for different bearings were determined adaptively by the maximum of the smooth operation data. The degradation dataset of a rolling bearing was subsequently obtained. In the meantime, a GRU-DeepAR model was built to obtain predictions of the failure time and failure probability. Appropriate model parameters were determined after a large number of tests to assure the effectiveness and prediction accuracy. Finally, the trend of time series and failure times were predicted by inputting the degradation dataset into the GRU-DeepAR model. Experiments showed that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of the remaining useful life prediction of a rolling bearing with good stability.