Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Relation to Ventilatory Parameters: A Prospective Cohort Study

There is a paucity of data on the association between respiratory function and atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to assess the relationship between forced expiratory volume (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV1/FVC and incident AF.

We performed an analysis of prospectively collected data from the UK Biobank. We included all participants with available spirometry and excluded those with prior AF. Incident AF was ascertained through hospitalisation and death records, and dose-response associations were assessed by means of multivariable Cox regression analysis with adjustment for known AF risk factors.

We studied 348,219 white individuals (54.1% female) with a median age of 58.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 50.8-63.5 years). Over a median follow-up time of 11.5 years (IQR 11.0-12.6 years), a total of 18,188 incident AF events occurred. After standardisation to sex, age, and height, the risk of AF consistently increased with decreasing FEV1 percentage predicted, FEV1 z score, and FVC z score. The risk of AF linearly increased with decreasing FEV1/FVC ratio, and those that had airway obstruction as defined by FEV1/FVC ratio < 0.70 had a 23% greater risk of incident AF (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.28) compared with those without airway obstruction. Patients with known chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma were at 40% (aHR 1.40, 95% CI 1.29-1.51) and 17% (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.12-1.22) increased risk of incident AF respectively.

These findings indicate that reduced ventilatory function is associated with increased risk of AF independently from age, sex, smoking, and other known AF risk factors.