Increase in chlorophyll-a concentration in Lake Taihu from 1984 to 2021 based on Landsat observations

Lake Taihu, located in a densely populated and highly industrialized area in eastern China, has experienced dramatic changes in water quality since the reform and opening-up in the 1980s. Landsat data can be used to trace water quality changes over approximately 40 years. However, chlorophyll-a (Chla) estimation, which characterizes the trophic status, has not been thoroughly explored (especially in turbid water using wide bandwidth Landsat) due to the interference of suspended particulate matter (SPM) to Chla. In this study, we used Landsat TM/OLI for turbid water Chla inversion and to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of Chla in Lake Taihu for 38 years and its influencing factors. An optical classification algorithm based on R_rs(green)/R_rs(red) was used to exclude highly turbid waters dominated by SPM; Chla was estimated only in waters with low SPM. We constructed an exponential estimation model based on R_rs(NIR)/R_rs(red), and verified the accuracy of the model using the measured Chla synchronized with satellite data. The model was applied to Landsat images to calculate the Chla concentration in Lake Taihu during 1984-2021, and its spatiotemporal distribution patterns were further analyzed. Spatially, the Chla concentrations in the western and northern regions of Lake Taihu were higher than those in other regions, probably because these areas are estuaries with large exogenous pollutant discharge and more nutrients are imported from exogenous sources. Chla showed an overall significant upward trend from 1984 to 2021 probably because of temperature rise, wind speed reduction, and nutrient increase. The results of the spatial and temporal variation of Chla and the influencing factors in this study provide supporting data for eutrophication monitoring and management in Lake Taihu. The proposed Chla estimation method can be extended to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of eutrophication in other inland waters with similar optical properties.