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Digital traces of offline mobilization.
Laura G E Smith1, Lukasz Piwek2, Joanne Hinds2
1Department of Psychology, University of Bath.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
|February 13, 2023
Summary
Socially validated online interactions, not online polarization, predict offline protest participation. Likes on posts about grievances are key to mobilizing collective action.
Area of Science:
- Social Sciences
- Computer Science
- Sociology
Background:
- Global protests and online activity have increased since 2009.
- The relationship between online behavior and offline collective action mobilization remains unclear.
- Online polarization and social validation are proposed mechanisms for mobilization.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how and why online activity mobilizes offline collective action.
- To test the propositions that online polarization and social validation influence offline participation.
- To model online and offline behavior around a mass protest using digital traces.
Main Methods:
- Two studies utilized digital traces and data science techniques to analyze online behavior.
- Study 1a used Twitter data (759 users, 7,592 tweets) to train a classifier predicting protest participation (80% accuracy).
- Study 1b analyzed longitudinal Twitter data (209 users, 277,556 tweets) to examine the association between online polarization, social validation, and protest participation.
Main Results:
- A classifier accurately predicted offline collective action participation based on Twitter behavior.
- Attendees used mobile devices for protest logistics and presence broadcasting.
- Protest participation was not linked to individual online polarization but positively correlated with post validation (likes).
Conclusions:
- Socially validated online interactions concerning grievances are crucial for collective action mobilization.
- Online activity is not low-cost but requires social validation to be effective in mobilization.
- Digital traces offer insights into the mechanisms linking online behavior to offline collective action.
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