Evaluating red tide effects on the West Florida Shelf using a spatiotemporal ecosystem modeling framework

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Fisheries science
• Ecosystem modeling

Background:

• The West Florida Shelf (WFS) is a biodiverse region supporting valuable fisheries.
• Red tide events regularly disrupt WFS ecosystems, impacting resources and services.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of red tides on the WFS ecosystem.
• To improve population assessments and support ecosystem-based management frameworks.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Ecospace, a spatiotemporal ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim).
• Incorporated lethal and sublethal red tide response functions.
• Employed a comprehensive calibration procedure for model robustness.

Main Results:

• Severe ecosystem, community, and population-level impacts from red tides on the WFS.
• Observed reductions in biomass, catch, and productivity.
• Identified compensatory responses like avoidance behavior and altered predator-prey dynamics.

Conclusions:

• Red tides cause substantial harm to the WFS ecosystem and fisheries.
• Spatiotemporal ecosystem models can be operationalized for proactive fisheries management.
• Enhanced modeling improves responses to episodic mortality events like red tides.