Risk Assessment of Arbaeen Mass Gathering in the Covid-19 Pandemic
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Updated: Aug 10, 2025
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Published on: November 10, 2023
Shiva Yousefian1, Masoumeh Abbasabadi-Arab1, Peyman Saberian1
1National Medical Emergency Organization, Ministry of Health & Medical Education, Tehran, Iran.
Insights
The Arbaeen pilgrimage poses significant COVID-19 risks due to mass gatherings. Immediate action is needed to mitigate high-risk factors like increased cases and environmental contamination during this major religious event.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- The annual Arbaeen pilgrimage involves large numbers of participants, posing a substantial risk for COVID-19 transmission.
- Mass gatherings during the pandemic can overwhelm healthcare systems and accelerate disease spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the specific risks associated with the 2021 Arbaeen ceremony during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- To identify high-risk factors requiring immediate mitigation strategies.
Main Methods:
- A mixed-methods approach combining qualitative and quantitative data.
- Utilized a national risk assessment tool including hazard identification, scenario development, exposure, vulnerability assessment, and risk estimation.
- Data collection involved focused group discussions with 20 health system representatives.
Main Results:
- Risk matrix analysis identified several high-risk factors in the 'red zone' requiring immediate action.
- Key risks include increased COVID-19 cases, exposure to new variants, and environmental contamination (score 12).
- Increased healthcare facility referrals (score 16) and respiratory disease transmission were also identified as critical risks.
Conclusions:
- Continuous risk assessment is crucial for preparedness in mass gatherings like Arbaeen to minimize communicable disease spread.
- Policymakers and event planners must collaborate with public health authorities for regular risk assessments.
Introduction:
Arbaeen is a religious ceremony held annually with the participation of a large number of pilgrims. During the pandemic of Covid-19, a mass gathering of Arbaeen pilgrims can strengthen the transmission of this disease and put more pressure on the health care system of countries. The aim of the study is to evaluate the risk of Arbaeen ceremony in the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021.
Materials And Methods:
A mixed method was performed to perform the study using qualitative and quantitative methods. A national risk assessment tool was used that consisted of hazard identification and assessment, scenario development, exposure assessment, vulnerability assessment and risk estimation. The national risk assessment tool was completed through a focused group discussion and the opinions of 20 representatives of the health system and the level of risks were estimated. Data were collected, analyzed, and integrated by the research team.
Results:
Based on the results of risk matrix analysis, factors such as the increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19, the probability of exposure to a new variant of COVID-19, the probability of arrival of a new variant of COVID-19 to the country, the probability of increasing referrals to healthcare facilities (score 16), the probability of getting respiratory diseases, and the environmental contamination (score 12) occupied the red area of the matrix and were found to have the highest risk (unbearable risk), that needs immediate action.
Conclusion:
Preparing for a mass gathering such as Arbaeen is very important in order to reduce the risk of communicable disease, and the first step in improving preparedness is risk assessment and its continuity in the various stages of the ceremony. Therefore, policy makers and planners of such events should conduct risk assessments with the participation of local and national public health authorities regularly.
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