A tale of two recession-derivative indicators

Two recession-derivative indicators (RDIs) have been used extensively as forecast objects in business cycle prediction, viz. (1) the target variable takes value 1 if there is a recession starting exactly at a specific horizon in the future, and (2) the target variable takes value 1 if there is a recession starting any time over a specified period in the future. Using daily yield spread as an illustrative predictor, we formally and quantitatively compare the two RDIs using the receiver operating characteristics analysis. Over 1962-2021 covering eight NBER recessions, we find that generally the second RDI, ceteris paribus, will make the the predictor better performing. However, the first RDI can generate better-looking and more useful predictions under certain scenarios, depending on forecast horizon, recession duration and time profile of signals. We also consider a semiannual chronology proposed by Peláez (J Macroecon 45:384-393, 2015) and find that its performance is in the middle of the other two. Our analysis suggests that the choice of a particular RDI should be dictated by the needs of forecast user in a particular decision making context.