Virulence differences of mpox (monkeypox) virus clades I, IIa, and IIb.1 in a small animal model

Human mpox (monkeypox), a disease with similarities to smallpox, is endemic in Africa where it has persisted as a zoonosis with limited human-to-human spread. Unexpectedly, the disease expanded globally in 2022 driven by human-to-human transmission outside of Africa. It is not yet known whether the latter is due solely to behavioral and environmental factors or whether the mpox virus is adapting to a new host. Genome sequencing has revealed differences between the current outbreak strains, classified as clade IIb, and the prior clade IIa and clade I viruses, but whether these differences contribute to virulence or transmission has not been determined. We demonstrate that the wild-derived inbred castaneous mouse provides an exceptional animal model for investigating clade differences in mpox virus virulence and show that the order is clade I > clade IIa > clade IIb.1. The greatly reduced replication of the clade IIb.1 major outbreak strain in mice and absence of lethality at 100 times the lethal dose of a closely related clade IIa virus, despite similar multiplication in cell culture, suggest that clade IIb is evolving diminished virulence or adapting to other species.