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Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model.
Jun-Young Park1,2, Fabian Schloesser3, Axel Timmermann4,5
1Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea. junyoung1989@pusan.ac.kr.
Nature Communications
|February 14, 2023
Summary
Coupled climate-ice-sheet models reveal that ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks significantly impact sea-level rise projections. These interactions are crucial for accurately predicting future ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise.
Area of Science:
- Earth System Science
- Climate Modeling
- Glaciology
Background:
- Offline ice-sheet models are commonly used for sea-level rise projections but exclude ice-sheet-climate interactions.
- Two-way feedbacks between ice sheets and the climate system are not typically included in these simulations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the impact of ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise.
- To simulate future sea-level rise under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios using a coupled model.
Main Methods:
- Employed a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity.
- Conducted simulations following Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios: 1-1.9, 2-4.5, and 5-8.5.
Main Results:
- Projected ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise by 2150 are 0.2 ± 0.01 m (SSP1-1.9), 0.5 ± 0.01 m (SSP2-4.5), and 1.4 ± 0.1 m (SSP5-8.5).
- Antarctic ocean-ice-sheet-ice-shelf interactions increase basal melting but reduce surface melting and calving due to atmospheric cooling from freshwater.
- These feedbacks are likely to decelerate Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise compared to uncoupled model results.
Conclusions:
- Future sea-level rise estimates are fundamentally dependent on complex ice-sheet, iceberg, ocean, and atmosphere interactions.
- Coupled modeling is essential for accurate projections of ice-sheet melt and subsequent sea-level rise.
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