Can the Clean Heating Policy reduce carbon emissions? Evidence from northern China

The Clean Heating Policy aims to solve the problems of excessive energy consumption and severe air pollution caused by central heating in northern China. Whether this policy can effectively reduce carbon emissions remains unexplored. Using panel data representing 65 cities in northern China from 2010 to 2019, this paper constructs a dynamic spatial DID model to empirically study the carbon reduction effect of the Clean Heating Policy and its influence channels. The results are summarized as follows. First, the Clean Heating Policy can significantly reduce carbon emissions, and this conclusion holds after multiple robustness tests. The policy has a lag effect, but its spatial spillover effect and long-term effect are not significant. Second, the carbon reduction effect of the Clean Heating Policy is mainly achieved by optimizing the energy structure and improving the thermal efficiency of heat consumer terminals. Third, the carbon reduction effect varies by city and emission field. It is significant only in low-subsidy cities, high-carbon cities, and household fields. Fourth, there is a synergistic reduction relationship between the Clean Heating Policy and the low-carbon city policy. Based on the results of this paper, we propose policy implications, such as promoting policies in multiple ways and improving subsidy efficiency, and provide a reference for other countries.