Distinct WBC Trajectories are Associated with the Risks of Incident CVD and All-Cause Mortality

To examine the trajectory of white blood cell (WBC) and their potential impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality (ACM) risks.

This prospective cohort included 61,666 participants without CVD on or before June 1, 2012. Latent mixture modeling was used to identify WBC trajectories in 2006-2012 as predictors of CVD and ACM. Incident CVD and ACM in 2012-2019 were the outcomes. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to analyze the risks of incident CVD and ACM.

According to WBC ranges and dynamics, five distinct WBC trajectories were identified: low-stable (n=18,432), moderate-stable (n=26,656), elevated-stable (n=3,153), moderate-increasing (n=11,622), and elevated-decreasing (n=1,803). During 6.65±0.83 years of follow-up, we documented 3773 incident CVD cases and 3304 deaths. Relative to the low-stable pattern, the moderate-increasing pattern was predictive of an elevated risk of CVD (HR=1.36, 95% CI: 1.24-1.50), especially acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (HR=1.91, 95% CI: 1.46-2.51), while the elevated-stable pattern was predictive of an elevated risk of ACM (HR=1.77, 95% CI: 1.52-2.06). Among participants with hs-CRP ＜2 mg/L or ≥2 mg/L, similar associations were observed between the moderate-increasing pattern with CVD (HR=1.41, 95% CI: 1.24-1.61) and ACM (HR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.18-2.01, HR=1.89, 95% CI: 1.57-2.29, respectively).

We found that distinct WBC trajectories were differentially associated with CVD and ACM risks in Chinese adults.