Structural change in feedlot cattle death loss rates.

Area of Science:

• Animal Science
• Agricultural Economics
• Statistical Modeling

Background:

• Industry reports suggest rising cattle feedlot death loss rates.
• Increased death loss negatively impacts feedlot operational costs and profitability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine if cattle feedlot death loss rates have changed over time.
• To analyze the nature of any structural changes in death loss rates.
• To identify potential catalysts for observed changes in death loss.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Kansas Feedlot Performance and Feed Cost Summary data (1992-2017).
• Modeled death loss rate using feeder cattle weight, days on feed, time, and seasonality.
• Applied structural change tests (CUSUM, CUSUMSQ, Bai and Perron) to identify breaks.

Main Results:

• Structural breaks, both systematic and abrupt, were detected in death loss rates.
• Days on feed significantly positively influenced death loss.
• A significant positive structural shift in death loss was identified from December 2000 to September 2010, with higher variance during this period.

Conclusions:

• Statistical evidence confirms changes in the structure of cattle feedlot death loss rates.
• Systematic changes may be linked to evolving feeding rations and technologies.
• Abrupt changes could be associated with events like extreme weather or specific treatment protocols.