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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Association between the Standardized Mortality Ratio and Healthy Life Expectancy in Japan
Rikuya Hosokawa1, Toshiyuki Ojima2, Tomoya Myojin3
1Department of Human Health Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Introduction:
Healthy life expectancy (HLE) remains the principal target of various health plans. We aimed to identify the areas of priority and determinants of mortality to extend HLE across local governments in Japan.
Methods:
HLE according to secondary medical areas was calculated using the Sullivan method. People requiring long-term care of level 2 or higher were considered unhealthy. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for major causes of death were calculated using vital statistics data. The association between HLE and SMR was analyzed using simple and multiple regression analyses.
Results:
The average (standard deviation) HLE values were 79.24 (0.85) and 83.76 (0.62) years for men and women, respectively. A comparison of HLE revealed regional health gaps of 4.46 (76.90-81.36) and 3.46 (81.99-85.45) years for men and women, respectively. The coefficients of determination for the SMR of malignant neoplasms with HLE were the highest and were 0.402 and 0.219 among men and women, respectively, followed by those of cerebrovascular diseases, suicide, and heart diseases among men and those of heart disease, pneumonia, and liver disease among women. When all major preventable causes of death were analyzed simultaneously in a regression model, the coefficients of determination were 0.738 and 0.425 among men and women, respectively.
Conclusions:
Our findings suggest that local governments should prioritize preventing cancer deaths via cancer screening and smoking cessation measures in health plans, with a special focus on men.
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