Mapping and assessing seagrass meadows changes and blue carbon under past, current, and future scenarios

Seagrasses store large amounts of blue carbon and mitigate climate change, but they have suffered strong regressions worldwide in recent decades. Blue carbon assessments may support their conservation. However, existing blue carbon maps are still scarce and focused on certain seagrass species, such as the iconic genus Posidonia, and intertidal and very shallow seagrasses (<10 m depth), while deep-water and opportunistic seagrasses have remained understudied. This study filled this gap by mapping and assessing blue carbon storage and sequestration by the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa in the Canarian archipelago using the local carbon storage capacity and high spatial resolution (20 m/pixel) seagrass distribution maps for the years 2000 and 2018. Particularly, we mapped and assessed the past, current and future capacity of C. nodosa to store blue carbon, according to four plausible future scenarios, and valued the economic implications of these scenarios. Our results showed that C. nodosa has suffered ca. 50 % area loss in the last two decades, and, if the current degradation rate continues, our estimations demonstrate that it could completely disappear in 2036 ("Collapse scenario"). The impact of these losses in 2050 would reach 1.43 MT of CO₂ equivalent emitted with a cost of 126.3 million € (0.32 % of the current Canary GDP). If, however, this degradation is slow down, between 0.11 and 0.57 MT of CO₂ equivalent would be emitted until 2050 ("Intermediate" and "Business-as-usual" scenarios, respectively), which corresponds to a social cost of 3.63 and 44.81 million €, respectively. If the current seagrass extension is maintained ("No Net Loss"), 0.75 MT of CO₂ equivalent would be sequestered from now to 2050, which corresponds to a social cost saving of 73.59 million €. The reproducibility of our methodology across coastal ecosystems underpinned by marine vegetation provides a key tool for decision-making and conservation of these habitats.